WATCH: Full Episode Here Distribution Ep. 4 features Jake Mor from Superwall (#1 paywall optimization platform). Jake shares how he went from losing $25k in ad spend to building a $3.5M ARR fitness
Hook Rates Are a Scam: 10,000+ Ads Show Zero Correlation With Winners
We analyzed 10,000+ ads across 23 client accounts. The correlation between hook rate and an ad being a winner is 0.036 — statistical noise. The only metric with a meaningful gradient is CTR, and even that explains only ~2% of variance. What actually predicts winners? Formats. Our top format won in 15 of 23 accounts (65% hit rate, 8× baseline).
How many ad variations should you make?
Part of a series on making sense of paid ads from first principles.
UGC Is Dead And We Have Killed It
“UGC is dead, and we have killed it.”