Distribution by NewForm E01: Liner's Alex Yoon

Hook Rates Are a Scam: 10,000+ Ads Show Zero Correlation With Winners

We analyzed 10,000+ ads across 23 client accounts. The correlation between hook rate and an ad being a winner is 0.036 — statistical noise. The only metric with a meaningful gradient is CTR, and even that explains only ~2% of variance. What actually predicts winners? Formats. Our top format won in 15 of 23 accounts (65% hit rate, 8× baseline).

How many ad variations should you make?

Part of a series on making sense of paid ads from first principles.

UGC Is Dead And We Have Killed It

“UGC is dead, and we have killed it.”